Project Mayhem Research

Dubai prior to running out of money

We expect sovereign debt default probabilities to increase astronomically over the next year, due to a multitude of converging factors. Tyler at Zerohedge.com has provided us with the latest updated CDS (credit default swap spreads). Ukraine, Venezuela, and Argentina top the list. We also expect potential problems from Dubai, Greece, Romaina, Latvia, Bulgaria, or Bahrain. Of course the most interesting is the State of California is in such bad shape that it is #16 in the list. Perhaps we should just give it to China as Marla has suggested.




Sovereign Debt Default 5Y CDS spreads. Higher implies more default risk.